Real Estate Market Overview March 2021 | Bruce Clark Coldwell Banker

Dated: March 26 2021

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I'm a numbers guy:  prior to entering real estate, not only was I a CTO of an internet retailer, but I was also the general securities principal and partner in a small, boutique investment firm in Los Angeles (we were even market makers in some NASDAQ stocks). So charts, graphs, and trends are something I have depended on for more than 30 years.

Today, the numbers for the economy are very concerning - and that applies to real estate also. It has been a crazy year so far in real estate:  more than 33% of homes sold closed above the listing price, 25% of homes sold were purchased all-cash and, according to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R), active listings fell by more than 50% from last year. In the past couple of months it has been common to see a line of buyers at every listing. In other words, the market is seriously overheated.

The $64,000 question is where are we headed? I've been a real estate agent for more than 15 years - and I remember the 2008 housing crash. Contrary to what many agents and brokers are saying, I believe we're going to see a huge correction in real estate.

24% of Active Forbearance Plans Scheduled to End in March, When More than 600,000 Homeowners Face 12-Month Expirations.

  • Nearly 3.6 million 90-day defaults occurred in 2020 – the largest number since 2009 – with 2.1 million homeowners currently seriously delinquent on their mortgage payments
  • At the current rate of improvement, when forbearance plans begin to expire in March, there would still be approximately 1.5 million more serious delinquencies than at the start of the pandemic

Data provided courtesy of Black Knight

I'm seeing more holders of 2nds (second lender) foreclosing. Many of those being foreclosed on were in a forbearance program from the 2008 decline. Lien holders packing on fees, penalties, etc

In the stock market, the Shiller (Case-Shiller) P/E ratio is above 30, we see many non-profitable unicorns (a private company with a valuation over $1 billion)

- Procjections are for U.S. house prices to drop 6.6% by May 2021, which would be the first annual Decline since Jan. 2012: CoreLogic

- CNBC: Home prices are overheated, mortgage rates are rising, the supply of homes for sale is anemic and consumer confidence in the housing market is falling..

Bruce Clark
Coldwell Banker Realty
Cell Phone:  949-285-1207
CalRE:         01503471

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Bruce Clark

For the past 15 years, I have been a Realtor in Southern California, representing sellers and buyers in all price ranges and areas, including custom homes, estate homes, waterfront properties, condos,....

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